Forex losses likely to play spoilsport for TCS
After disappointing numbers from Infosys, analysts and investors are anxiously awaiting the quarter-end figures of the country’s second biggest IT exporter TCS, which will announce its results on Monday. Infosys and TCS numbers often reflect the state of the Indian IT sector.
In the past few quarters, foreign exchange hedging transactions have played an important role in deciding who among the two fared better. To that extent, the two arch rivals share a sort of inverse relationship, which may continue even during the March quarter. Until September ’08 quarter, Infosys was reporting higher forex losses compared to TCS.
This was helping the latter to come out with better numbers. For instance, Infosys reported a forex loss of Rs 45 crore in the March’08 quarter as against Rs 256.6-crore gain for TCS. In the following quarter, the loss widened to Rs 80 crore for Infosys while TCS reported a loss of Rs 75 crore.
However, since September ’08 quarter, forex losses of TCS have risen significantly compared to Infosys. This can be attributed to the difference in forex strategies of the two companies.
Infosys has shifted to short-term forex hedging citing increased volatility in the currency market Further, it is using only range forward options, which limit the risk emanating from high volatility.
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